Thriller Insider - S3EP14: The Current Bull Cycle


🚀The Golden Bull Cycle Repeats…

Trading Shot has calculated the remaining days of the current Bull Cycle. 🤓

We are in based on the Top, Bottom and Halving of each Cycle. These parameters are effectively used to distinguish the Bull from the Bear Cycles. Tops are obviously where the Bull phase ends and Bear starts, while the Bottoms are where the Bear phase ends and the Bull starts.

The 51%-49% Ratio and the importance of the Halving
The focus of this study is the Bull Cycle. As you see on the chart there is a striking similarity on each Cycle. The phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically we can claim that the Halving seems to be the middle of each Bull Cycle.

So where are we now?
Based on the above ratio and with the 3rd Halving scheduled on May 12th, 2020, we can calculate that the first phase (51%) of the current Bull Cycle will last around 520 days (Bottom made on December 15th 2018). The 49% which based on the previous two cycles has been the second phase should therefore last around 505 days, placing the Top of the current Bull Cycle in early October 2021! This means that there are around 600 days of Bull Cycle left!!

Of course there are and will be several other parameters that can influence the cycle (we saw that on the April-June 2019 parabolic explosion) but this is a good (and so far very accurate) pattern that long term Bitcoin investors can follow.

It certainly answers the question "is it too late to buy?" though!

10K Moves in Single Day….

This one is for the believers. Not for the average person who said in 2010 "Bitcoin is at $0.05 it can't make a $1 move in a single day, are you crazy?" or in 2011 " Bitcoin at $2 and you think it can move $100 in ONE day??" or in 2015 "We are now at $200, which is 1000 below the $1200 All Time High and you are telling ME that Bitcoin can move $1000 in ONE day??". Or even those who will now rush to say "A $10000 single day move?? You must be nuts, do you now how high the market cap would be??".

Do you guys see the pattern? Denial denial and denial since Day 1. So if you are this type of person (who obviously has uncanny skills at missing lifetime opportunities) you can skip this idea and move on to the next one.

The previous moves

Now what do we know about the previous single day moves of $1, $10, $100 and $1000 that have taken place thus far?

  • The first +$1 move in a single day was in April 30, 2011 when Bitcoin rose from $2.75 to 4.05 (approximately). This was made on the High before the top of the Bull Cycle.

  • The first +$10 move in a single day was in June 11, 2011 when Bitcoin declined from $23.90 to 13.25 (approximately). This was made at the Top of the Bull Cycle.

  • The first +$100 move in a single day was in April 10, 2013 when Bitcoin declined from $270 to 120 (approximately). This was made on the High before the top of the Bull Cycle.

  • The first +$1000 move in a single day was in November 29, 2017 when Bitcoin declined from $11400 to 9100 (approximately). This was made at the Top of the Bull Cycle.

    From the above info we realize that Bitcoin tends to make its first single day moves of such magnitude in declines.

    Also notice how the $1000 - $10000 zone didn't have a +$1000 move in a single day and interrupted the streak of the zones below which all gave a first day of X move.

    See also how every X move is made either on the last High before the top of the Bull Cycle or on (near) the Top of the Bull Cycle itself. Never in any other point of the Cycle. This is normal as such historic (at the time) moves tend to be created on large volume when the public in either in excessive euphoria or fear. Also notice how each X move takes turns between the High before and the Top of the Bull Cycle.

    So when will we see the $10000 move in one single day?
    Based on the above since the last move ($1000) was made at the Top of the (previous) Bull Cycle and since the moves take turns, the next turn is for a last High before the top of the Bull Cycle. Based however on Bitcoin's Historic Parabolic Growth Channel, this puts the $10000 move marginally below the 100000. Why is this a problem? Because there have never been two X moves within the same zone and the 10000 - 100000 zone already gave us the $1000 move. Can this be because the 1000 - 10000 missed that move, and was postponed a channel later? Maybe. But still it is more logical (and safer to assume) that then $10000 move in one single day will be made on the next zone (100000 - 1000000), which puts it however at (or near) the Top of the Bull Cycle (which breaks the sequence of turns).

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