Thriller Coin Talk - S4EP8: Bitcoin in September


Today we discuss Bitcoin in September.

TradingShot Chart via Trading View

Pump to $12800 or dump $11100 in the first half of the month? Similar to June & July?

Currently BTC is about to test the 0.786 Fibonacci. It is obvious that this holds the key, as a rejection there could push the price below the 0.382 Fib and back to the 0 at $11100 as shown on scenario (B). At the same time if the 4H candle closes above the 0.786 Fib, we can see a strong pump above 1 and towards the 1.3 Fib at $12800 as happened on scenario (A).

Bitcoin Market Health

Charts via Glassnode Studio

Fed Chair Powell Announced Major Shift on Inflation Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank will now allow inflation to run higher than the 2% target before deciding whether or not to raise interest rates. The Fed’s monetary policy decisions will be guided by its goal of maintaining a strong labor market. Powell announced the policy shift at a virtual meeting of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole summit. Nobody knows what this will do to the US economy in the long run. Many are speculating that eventually, this leads to a debasement of the US Dollar as the global reserve currency. Even Goldman Sachs recently expressed "real concerns around the longevity of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency." Governments creating more money means that the hard-earned dollars you make today will have less purchasing power in the future.

Hyperbitcoinization…was always looked at as a Bitcoin Pipe Dream but with the latest move by the FED, people among the Bitcoin space believe this is now an inevitability.

Layer 2…There has been a lot of talk lately about the rate of adoption of the Lightning Network; Bitcoin’s most prominent layer 2 technology. Paypal’s Bitcoin launch will happen later this year…it is quite obvious at this point they will utilize Lightning at some point in the next 18 months.

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Keep in mind…Proposed Payments Charter is still advancing faster then we anticipated. Just here recently…

Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks' effort to reshape what is regarded as a bank has sparked a court fight with New York and drawn fire from other state regulators and established lenders. But that isn’t stopping him from forging ahead.

Brooks told POLITICO the agency will be ready as soon as Tuesday to start processing applications for charters from payments companies, just three months after he took over the agency. These could include financial technology firms like PayPal or cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase, his former employer.

“We’ve satisfied ourselves that we don’t need a new regulation or a new statute on it,” Brooks said.

A charter would give these companies the ability to operate across state borders with a single set of rules, as well as to expand the suite of financial services they offer.

Though the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's action is welcome for those that could apply, it's giving heartburn to banks and credit unions, which joined together to urge the agency to “proceed carefully, deliberately, and transparently.”

The push to broaden who receives bank charters touches on hot-button debates such as whether non-depository institutions should have direct access to the U.S. payments rails — giving them the ability to transfer money without going through a bank — and what the proper separation is between banking and other types of commerce.

And another major question follows from those: Could this give tech giants like Google and Amazon the ability to bypass banks altogether if they sought a charter?

“If you take the position that you don’t have to be a deposit taker, it’s difficult to understand what the limiting principle would be, whereby not only a PayPal could be a national bank but any company in America could be a national bank,” said Greg Baer, president and CEO of the Bank Policy Institute, which represents big banks.

Brooks said the public will get the opportunity to comment on any formal application.

He also said payments companies with charters would be subject to all of the same rules as a traditional bank, but its actual activities would drive how those rules apply. He emphasized that their business model would still result in some capital and liquidity requirements.

“Payments banks will certainly be subject to capital rules,” he said. “The application of those rules to a payments bank will result in a different number than the application of that rule to a bank that, for example, takes credit risk, because a payments company that doesn’t make loans doesn't have any credit exposure.”

He conveyed urgency in having banking activities regulated rigorously, no matter which firm is doing them.

“If we go on like for another 10 years, half the financial services activity that’s currently being done in banks will be done by somebody else,” he said. “And I won't be able to ensure the safety and soundness of it.”

Research and analysis of the Bitcoin market tells me…we are seeing now the point of no return for a massive rise of inflation brought on by the incompetence by the FED. We are now in what is called the end game for fiat currency. Watch for Bitcoin price to make a run Labor Day weekend and into next week and then a stable price around 10.5K out towards the end of the month.

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