Thriller Coin Talk - S4EP13: Bitcoin in November


Today we discuss Bitcoin in November

TradingShot Chart via Trading View

This study revolves around the importance of the $13,865 level. This is of course what is known to most as the June 26, 2019 High and current Resistance for Bitcoin's uptrend. First of all, believe it or not, Bitcoin has historically only spent 39 days above the $13,865 level! That is roughly only 5 weeks, just over 1 month! And to put things more into perspective, since Bitcoin's last day above $13,865 (January 15, 2018), we have spend 1019 days below it! That alone should be enough to highlight the importance of breaking above the $13,865 for the current uptrend. Bitcoin has shown numerous times both on short and long-term time-frames that the patterns it follows can be symmetrical.

Bitcoin Market Health

Charts via Glassnode Studio

Make no mistake the US Election on the 3rd of November will have implications on the price of Bitcoin.

  • If the "Biden ruins the financial system" narrative plays out then Bitcoin pumps as a safe haven digital asset.

  • If the "With Trump stocks only go up" narrative plays out then Bitcoin pumps in unison with traditional financial markets as they go higher.

  • Bitcoin wins in either direction…long term it is inevitable. There would be a greater chance of a Santa Rally if Trump loses as most investors will try to maximize profit before he leaves office.

  • The Biden/Trump scenario we have no plan for?

    • Far too many scenarios we just where we just do not know. In this type of scenario Bitcoin along with the rest of the traditional financial markets dump because of the unforeseen future ahead of us in 2021, all go back to cash as a safe haven. This has a 30% probability of happening.

New Banks and more traditional banks are coming…

  • Bank of America has made several statements declaring that they’re investing the most in blockchain and crypto. As of today, Bank of America has possesses the most live patents in the blockchain space.

  • DBS, Singapore’s largest retail and commercial bank, seems to be entering the cryptocurrency space with three new offerings. DBS is launching cryptocurrency trading and custody as well as a platform for conducting security token offerings.

  • Crypto startup Avanti Financial Group has been granted a license to offer banking services by the Wyoming State Banking Board. The license, or bank charter, means Avanti can now operate as a conventional bank – but one with a twist, capable of holding both crypto and dollars. Avanti plans to issue Avit initially on both Liquid – a sidechain of the Bitcoin blockchain – and Ethereum. The company claims its tokenized U.S. dollar is “designed to solve the legal, accounting and tax issues of stablecoins.”

  • Paypal is reportedly on the verge of acquiring Bitgo, a cryptocurrency custodial services firm. Reports quote unnamed sources saying “PayPal has been in talks with BitGo and may conclude a deal within a few weeks.”

Bitcoin Futures Settlement Date…

  • What is Bitcoin futures settlement dates?

    Contract Expiration is the date at which futures contracts expire and end trading activity. “Prior to the expiration date, traders have a number of options to either close out or extend their open positions without holding the trade to expiration, but some traders will choose to hold the contract and go to settlement,”

    Contract settlement also occurs on a specified date. CME Group explained settlement as “the fulfillment of the legal delivery obligations associated with the original contract.” Therefore, on the specified date, the amount of the underlying asset would be given to the holder of the contract, at the market price at the time of settlement.

    Since CME and CBOE Bitcoin futures are cash-settled, the contract holder would receive the fiat (USD, etc.) value of the contract’s price at the time of settlement.

  • Do future settlements have an effect on Bitcoin’s price?

    The Bitcoin derivative products offered by CME are simply a vehicle for accredited investors to place sophisticated and risk-offsetting trades that would otherwise be inaccessible to them. This is sometimes true. Looking at the Bitcoin’s chart, compared with the futures settlement dates, often there was a price action which is likely to be ahead of the settlement event

World’s biggest money manager is shorting the US dollar regardless who the Oval Office occupant is…

  • The world’s biggest money manager is shorting the dollar on expectations that unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus will prolong its losses – regardless of who wins the US election.

    BlackRock holds a “modest” short in the US dollar against the likes of the Chinese yuan, Indian rupee and Indonesia rupiah, said Neeraj Seth, head of Asian credit in Singapore. The three Asian nations are among those best positioned to benefit from a weakening dollar as investors seek out higher-yielding assets and growth.

    “My base case is that we still have at least one- to three years of more moderate dollar weakness on the cards – that’s not going to change,” Seth said in a phone interview on Thursday. “Regardless of the election outcome, some of the policy actions have already happened.”

    The US$7.3 trillion giant joins global peers including Goldman Sachs and UBS Asset Management that favor selling the dollar with just a week to election day. On Monday, BlackRock strategists downgraded their views on Treasuries on growing likelihood of significant fiscal expansion under a unified Democratic government. They do see the central bank potentially having room to ease further as we go into the next quarter.

Keep in mind…

  • PayPal, Venmo to Roll Out Crypto Buying and Selling announcement was in October as predicated. Look for this to increase adoption, in the coming months.

  • Still waiting on Bakkt consumer app is set to launch anytime now. Currently in Beta. They have released more info this past week, expecting a launch this year! Look for this to happen in November along with a big marketing push behind it. This will likely kick off that Santa Rally.

  • Always be ready for other surprise Bitcoin announcements around the holidays.

  • Money 2020 was held this past week virtually for the first time, look for this to have a profound effect on how Banks will handle digital payments.

Research and analysis of the Bitcoin market tells me…

  • We will see a gradual push to 16K by the end of November.

  • I am still going with my conservative bet of only hitting $17K by the EOY but if we see anything higher it will happen around December 7th-12th 2020.

  • When bitcoin appreciates rapidly, all attention and capital are sucked out of altcoins, this is what we are seeing in October. Don’t fret, Most Alts Will Rise in November.

    • Cardano $ADA showing up on Coinbase Custody for staking.

    • Uniswap $UNI Airdrop

    • Ethereum Phase 0 launch - $ETH staking

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