Today we are talking Bitcoin and the Next Recession. This is not to scare you but to give you different scenarios on what could occur during the next global financial crisis like in 2008 (type level financial crisis.)
Go back and listen to Thriller Coin Talk - S2EP 38: The End of Central Banking where I discusses why the world’s monetary system is being destroyed.
Well according to Barron’s
The chatter surrounding the timing of the next recession is only getting louder, with two-thirds of economists now predicting that we will see some sort of economic downturn by the end of 2020. As we prepare for what many consider to be the inevitable, I’m frequently asked by investors and colleagues: “How will a future recession impact the cryptocurrency industry?”
This new, decentralized asset class was born at the tail end of the housing crisis, and has yet to experience the full force of a recession or even lengthy bear market. What I can say with certainty, however, is that few industries will have more to learn and more to teach: because not all 2,000 cryptocurrencies are alike and, as such, not all 2,000 cryptocurrencies will respond the same way to market pressure.
I think we have to look at some key factors by zooming out.
1st) I think, short-term, definitely Bitcoin is going to go down. People need to withdraw that money. Also as the market trades down, people get more fearful and they'll be selling more Bitcoin and move it over to fiat to withdraw. In plain speak its a domino effect. Retail investors get more fearful and then as Bitcoin falls in value, people will wonder if Bitcoin is or isn't a store of value. Which continues to more and more selling. Rinse and Repeat.
2nd) Today is a Trial Run of sorts, it truly is…which is good (I promise keep reading.) Because it will really depend on how big this next global recession will be and how the Bitcoin market will react. Which today was a precursor, a sort of announcement to the world, “Hey look were heading towards a global recession.”
Starting this morning…BTC began to fall sharply from $10,862 to as low as $9,888 before traders bought the price back up above $10,000. It marks the worst single-day loss since July 16, approximately 30 days ago.
3rd) Pay attention to Miners and what they do. Mining will be incredibly interesting to watch and how that impacts the Bitcoin/crypto ecosystem. We need a set of miners that are able to operate at lower costs and what happens when other miners are unable to mine in this global recession? Does that increases the chances of a 51% attack? Which could lead to another major drop in price and sentiment.
4th) What happens to exchanges? Think about it…suddenly there's a major global recession and retail investors and holders of last resort are pulling money and everyone's pulling money…at the same time from multiple exchanges? Do we really know what the deposit ratio is for Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase? Do they know? What happens if everyone suddenly pulls at the same time from some of the biggest exchanges? Can we cover it all? Will we be paid in Tether or USDC?
5th) Finally Bitcoin needs this challenge. Yes that’s right I said it. We need this challenge. Bitcoin / Crypto as an industry needs to survive this next recession, this is not being talked about in the industry and is not really being considered, we need to have these conversations now…to prepare.
Show Note Promises:
The packet of slides sent to clients early this week, from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. technical analyst Sheba Jafari. Interesting, she brightly predicated last years fall under 5K in February.
To view the full document check out the link below. https://www.scribd.com/document/421604963/Goldman-Sachs-slide-deck#download&from_embed
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