Today we discuss Bitcoin in June.
The May Triangle
The price has been consolidating within a Triangle since the May 07 $10100 High. Typically when Triangles break, that is the direction to follow.
- If the current Triangle breaks upwards, we still have the August 20, 2019 Lower Highs trend-line (dotted line) to consider as well as (and more importantly) the $10500 9-month Resistance.
- If the Triangle breaks downwards, it will make contact with the 1D MA50 (blue line) and then have two important Support levels to consider: the $8400 Symmetrical Support 1 (from the March 01, 2020 low) and the $7750 Symmetrical Support 2 (from the September 26 - October 07, 2019 lows).
The Channel Up on LMACD
The LMACD on the 1D time-frame is as you see on a Channel Up since late August 2019, where I of course exclude the March 12, 2020 sell-off which was caused by the stock market crash related to the COVID pandemic. The beginning of the LMACD's Channel Up matches perfectly with the beginning of the Cup pattern. As you see, every time the LMACD hits the Channel's Higher Lows trend-line, a low is made within the Cup formation.
At the moment the LMACD is close to the Higher Lows trend-line, meaning that there might be still some room to pull back to before it tests the zone of the $10500 9-month Resistance - August 20, 2019 Lower Highs trend-line. This supports well the argument that if the Triangle breaks downwards, it may find Support either on the $8400 Symmetrical Support 1 or the $7750 Symmetrical Support 2, depending on when the LMACD touches its Higher Lows trend-line.
That does this mean for us? As a long-term Bitcoin investor, keep some dry powder for when the LMACD makes contact with its Higher Lows trend-line and accumulate more BTC . If the price continues to trade sideways or drift lower on a slow pace, the LMACD may do so too and not touch its Higher Lows until the price gets much lower as it happened on November 25, 2019. So we shouldn't put the Symmetrical Support 3 ($6550) completely out of the picture, even though that would break the Cup formation. In my opinion if the Triangle breaks lower, the likely candidates to buy are the Support 1 & 2.
Whats ahead…More stimulus checks? Possibly…if so more people will enter Bitcoin. Watch for Facebook release of Novi wallet and $LBR digital currency, look for this to show up on Coinbase shortly after.
Important information to remember…current market conditions have led to a resurgence of institutional interest in Bitcoin. In the face of an unparalleled monetary and fiscal policy response from central banks and governments around the world, more institutions are recognizing that such policies significantly increase the probability of policy error, either by inciting financial imbalances in certain sectors of the economy or by stoking higher levels of inflation.
Keep in mind…June and July will be the last two bearish months for Bitcoin. We will have our spikes that will allow you some trading opportunities make smart decisions.
Resistance levels to consider…holding $8400 will be crucial this month, watch for price swings in this direction. A further drop to $7800 this month is a very likely scenario. If this resistance level breaks a crash back to $6500 will be in play.
Research and analysis of the Bitcoin market tells me…we have to break and solidify $10.5K before making the next step forward and out of this range. Current charts show this break not occurring till August 2020 and another couple months to solidify that level. This puts us in a very bullish scenario come October 2020.
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