Thriller Coin Talk - S3EP22: Bitcoin & The Next 72 Hours


Bitcoin Hash Rate..turn on the fog lights.

Bitcoin’s average block time spikes to 13 minutes for the first time since late 2018. Bitcoin has been consistently processing blocks more slowly as of late. For the past few days, the block time on the network has been more than 13 minutes. Blocks times are slowing down on Bitcoin’s network. Although block times have a tendency to stay stable, this is the first such spike since late 2018. The spike in late 2018 can be attributed to the drastic decline in Bitcoin’s price around that time. If you can recall, Bitcoin found its bottom during the bearish winter that year.

Higher block times are not the only anomaly currently seen on the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin’s hashrate has also plummeted in the past few weeks. This month, the hashrate has fallen some 40%. The drastic drop last week has also priced out many miners as mining profitability plummets.

Bitcoin has maintained some positive momentum after its price collapse. Lets look further…

Bitcoin Market Health

If you look at the chart below, you can see the volume of bitcoin inflows into all major exchanges before the crash. All inflows surged at around block 621.2K– a full three days before the actual dump. One suggestion is that this could’ve been a coordinated whale movement that initiated the mass sell-off. Still the data was there. Definitely something to keep an eye one going forward.

After the massive BTC price drop on March 13th, the price continued to decline before stabilizing around $5000-5500. At its lowest point, bitcoin experienced a 50% drop from its price a month ago.

However, we are seeing a rebound today, a high surge came and within 40 minutes, the price went from $5,850 to $6,250 before continuing to rise slightly. It is now back up to yesterday's highs.

Total money printed is over $4.7 Trillion dollars in four weeks. Wow! Just Wow! 💸

By the end of April we will be sitting on over $10 Trillion dollars printed! 💸 This has never been done before and I bet your financial planner didn't tell you this was going to happen, I know mine didn't.

We have now entered Financial Crisis 2 and it was not triggered by mortgage lending or consumers or banks, but by the historic mind-blowing "Everything Bubble," including the biggest corporate credit bubble the world has ever seen, being hit by the efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus. But if the FED hadn’t spent a decade inflating such a mind-blowing "Everything Bubble" (that had already begun to wobble), the financial reactions wouldn’t be nearly as chaotic as it looks today. So its time to Buy Bitcoin and Save the World!

Recent Bitcoin Surge…

The Fed's announcement indicates it is taking stronger actions, including open-ended asset purchases, to support the flow of credit to households and businesses.

"The Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions," the central bank said.

Bitcoin's (BTC) price shot up along with gold and stock futures after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a quantitative easing package with no upper limit to support the economy amid the coronavirus crisis. QE infinity 💸

The Next 72 Hours…is key.

Bitcoin has swung more than 10% in either direction (negative and positive) on 10 out of the last 15 days. We are in dangerous territory here.

This is TradingShot quick analysis of what this week's strong rejection and what it can mean for Bitcoin  if indeed we are repeating the main fractal of the 2018 bear market.

First of all I am not a fan of this formation as we are comparing two periods under largely different parameters. The first was a whole Bear Market span. The second is currently only the start of the new Bull Market. But fractals can give us insight on what charts will do in the short term. We will still look at hashrate and market sentiment for guidance on where the market is headed. One thing is certain Bitcoin will go back down to levels to retest.

So all the above are common factors on both patterns. Under these parameters we may assume that Bitcoin will follow the rest of the pattern (the length unknown) up to a point of a new aggressive sell off to test the low point of the previous volatile formation (indicated with the yellow ellipse shape) which is roughly around $5000. When can that bottom be? It is anybody's guess but the Halving date can serve just right this purpose before the second bullish phase of the current Bull Market starts.

Key Take Aways:

  • In the short term we climb above $6800. Be careful miners will be dumping ever chance they get.

  • Take profits where you can before the halvening, anything above $6800 is profit you should take.

  • Buy Bitcoin but only in dips, anything in the $3800-$5500 is a great buying opportunity.

  • Stay away from Alt Coins do not get sucked in, they will be much lower in price after the halvening.

  • Lastly we are still in an uncertain Bitcoin and Crypto market. We have to watch this day by day until some sense of normalcy comes back.

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