Today we discuss Bitcoin in April
TradingShot Chart via Trading View
Bitcoin Market Health
Charts via Glassnode Studio
The network difficulty is a relative measure of how hard it is to mine a new block for the Bitcoin blockchain. Meanwhile, simultaneous rising hash rate and mining difficulty suggest that miners are continuing to allocate a record number of resources to secure and invest in the network.
With the hash rate currently at record levels of around 170 EH/s, the difficulty adjustment, which occurs every 2016 blocks, makes sure that the time between blocks mined remains 10 minutes on average.
According to Stock to Flow we should be at 72K-89K in April.
PayPal Rolls Out Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash Payments…some 26 million merchants that have integrated PayPal will now be able to accept some of the four most prominent cryptocurrencies. There will be no transaction fee for paying with crypto, but “a cryptocurrency conversion spread will be built into the conversion from crypto to USD” with PayPal instantly converting the crypto into fiat. Customers will be able select their cryptocurrency of choice – Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum or Bitcoin Cash, depending on what they are holding with PayPal and the balances available in each cryptocurrency. Only one type of cryptocurrency can be used for each purchase.
BlackRock Has Begun Trading Bitcoin Futures…source familiar with the matter told CoinDesk the asset manager held $6.5 million in CME bitcoin futures contracts earlier this year. Those contracts had appreciated $360,457 on reporting day, according to documents reviewed by CoinDesk. The holdings represented 0.03% of BlackRock’s massive Global Allocation Fund on reporting day Jan. 31 – “very small,” the source said. BlackRock’s original 37 contracts expired on March 26.
North American bitcoin mining is taking off…bitcoin mining venture Blockcap just raised $38 million, a move in line with a burgeoning North American mining industry’s rush for hashrate. Based in Austin, Texas, Blockcap has bought 42,000 ASIC miners from Bitmain and Canaan so far, 12,000 of which are operational. The company plans to bring another 18,000 online by Q4 for a total output of 3.5 EH/s and will then add 12,000 more by 2022. Blockcap hosts these rigs at facilities run by CoreScientific, one of North America’s largest bitcoin mining co-locating companies. These facilities, scattered across the U.S., use a variety of renewables and fossil fuels to power machines with 46% renewables penetration, according to Darin Feinsten, founder of both Blockcap and CoreScientific. North American mining stocks have experienced booming valuations this bull market as many raise money to purchase more mining machines and operational space. Some of these companies, like Great American Mining and Upstream Data have carved out niches with oil and gas producers by furnishing them with mining rigs to turn otherwise flared/vented gas into hashrate. Others, like Riot, Hut 8, Blockstream and Marathon, have raised money or taken on debt to build out megafarms. As more mining firms plant their axes in North American soil, Feinstein anticipates that old-timers and newcomers alike will continue to tap renewables as a source of power for their machines.
Keep in mind…
Bitcoin has completed 6 straight green months…that’s the 2nd best streak ever! Since October 2020, every candle has been green, every month has been closing higher than the previous one. The best consecutive monthly performance was made from March 2012 to September 2012. 7 Months.
Goldman Sachs plans to allow its wealthy clients to invest in Bitcoin…according to an internal memo leaked to CNBC. What they will roll out exactly remains unclear, with Rich saying they plan to ultimately offer the full spectrum, but initially they will probably limit it to bitcoin funds for those with assets of $25 million or more. That follows Morgan Stanley’s announced plans to allow their wealthy investors, those with $2 million in assets at the bank, to invest in the Galaxy Bitcoin Fund LP
Bitcoin traders appear to be quite optimistic for April…with the most crowded options trade being $80K. According to data from the derivatives exchange Deribit as compiled by the analytics startup Glassnode. In addition many of the betters might not necessarily expect $80,000. They might just be speculating the price will rise and so their options contract price will rise.
Research and analysis of the Bitcoin market tells me…
Bitcoin is waning because financial markets are easing but Bitcoin remains strong. The Federal Reserve is printing money like no tomorrow and were up 40% on the money supply year over year. Bitcoin seems to have it all and is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield. On chain activity is looking pretty flat as of late. Retail investors seemed to have already loaded up on Bitcoin, and are moving onto Alts and NFTs. Perhaps we could see institutions and sovereign wealth funds enter in this month it really is anyone’s guess. We are expected to see stellar growth this year but knowing Bitcoin history it happens all at once. We hit an all time high of 62K in March short of our 75K prediction. April and May will both be hard months to call as will be going against historic Bitcoin trends.
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