🎧 Thriller Coin Talk - S4EP24: Bitcoin in March


Today we discuss Bitcoin in March

TradingShot Chart via Trading View

Bitcoin Market Health

Bitcoin’s hashrate has hit a new all-time high over 160 million TH/s, and while it has since dropped slightly. As the price of Bitcoin kept on rising, miners seemingly bet more on mining equipment and added more hashrate to the network. The figure is bullish as hell.

According to Stock to Flow we should be at 66K-69K in March.

BTC Past in Repeat?

Charts via Glassnode Studio

We are about to go up towards a commodity super cycle that will hit its peak by 2045

  • At the beginning of January Goldman Sachs released a client report predicting a new commodity super cycle. They see rising wages leading to faster, commodity price positive, home formation and more synchronized social policies, akin to those of the 1960s. In other respects they believe this cycle has stronger parallels to the 1970s than the 2000s. Goldman expects industrial capex to run at 2000 levels whilst social rebuilding generates a 1970s-style consumer boom. We must not forget the the digital commodities Bitcoin and Ethereum.

  • President Biden is about to roll out $1.9 trillion of additional spending measures and has indicated that further spending on infrastructure, climate change, education, digital transformation and healthcare could be undertaken should this jab in the economic arm not suffice. Taken together the measures could be worth 9% of US GDP.  The recovery from this pandemic will emphasize the renewable industrial revolution and social need. China recently committed to carbon neutrality by 2060, and President Biden has already returned the US to the Paris Agreement on climate change. Energy policy is going green and global, and it has the potential to create a new cycle of capital expenditure favoring commodities needed to accelerate climate-friendly technology.

  • U.S. Federal Reserve officials voted Wednesday to keep monetary conditions at historically loose levels while waiting for the economy to heal. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep the target rate for federal funds in a range of 0% to 0.25%, and the Fed plans to keep buying $80 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. “Because inflation has been running persistently below 2%, we’d like to see it run moderately above 2% for some time,” Powell said. “We have not adopted a formula, we’re not going to adopt a formula. … We’re going to preserve an element of judgement.”

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been raising the alarm about what she perceives to be a rising “misuse” of cryptocurrencies, which she argues are used mainly “for illicit financing” by unsavory groups. During her confirmation hearing, Yellen provided some ominous foreshadowing, saying, “I think we really need to examine ways in which we can curtail their use and make sure that money laundering doesn’t occur through those channels.”

  • Since February 10th, 10-year Treasury yields — which are not inflation adjusted — have moved from 1.13% to as high as 1.61%, a rise of 48 basis points, the highest level in a year. Fear of inflation is causing investors to speculate the Federal Reserve may have to shift policy sooner than expected, by either reducing bond purchases or even raising rates at some point. That would be a negative for stocks. “The rise in 10-year bond yields does not reflect an actual rise in inflation, it reflects that investors anticipate there will be a rise in inflation,” Do we see inflation in the real world? We do in commodities: Oil is approaching the highest since 2018, for example, and copper is at an almost 10-year high.

Keep in mind…

  • Microstrategy continues to build its war chest for the end of the decade. MicroStrategy Completes $1.05 Billion Offering of Convertible Notes at 0% Coupon and 50% Conversion Premium. MicroStrategy intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the notes to acquire additional bitcoin.

  • The world’s first settled Bitcoin ETFs got off to an explosive start. The Canadian ETFs, Purpose and Evolve. The Purpose Bitcoin ETF, which launched on February 18 as the first North American Bitcoin ETF, has $470 million in assets under management—or 10,000 Bitcoin. It broke records when it launched, trading $165 million-worth of shares in its first day, including $80 million in its first hour. The second Canadian Bitcoin ETF, Evolve (EBIT), which launched shortly after Purpose, also did well: it raised $421 million in just two days. Purpose Investments now holds over 10,000 Bitcoin in just a week after the launch of its Bitcoin exchange-traded fund product, data from on-chain analytics service Glassnode shows. One of the benefits for investors to purchase the Purpose Bitcoin ETF is that it holds “spot” (or actual) Bitcoin whenever an investor purchases its shares. This is different from most Bitcoin futures products, which allow investors to bet on rising/falling prices but tend to be settled in fiat money.

  • As Coinbase prepares to go public in the coming weeks, early reports suggest the company will be worth around $104 billion. That figure has led Bloomberg and Axios, among others, to note that the cryptocurrency giant's public listing will be the most valuable of any U.S. tech company since Facebook. In time, the company is likely to become the backbone of a new financial world. That world will be built on a new technology stack of blockchains and digital tokens, and Coinbase's mastery of this tech means it is poised to disrupt banks and stock exchanges.

  • The Arca Accredited Investor Bitcoin Trust is taking minimum investments of $25,000. Arca, a digital asset management firm, has filed paperwork with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to create a Bitcoin Trust. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust holds an estimated 3% of the 21 million BTC that will ever be in circulation and held $20 billion in assets under management at the end of 2020. Thus far, Arca has raised $100,000 from investors—it made its first sale on February 16.

  • Robinhood Has Added 6 Million New Crypto Users in 2021

  • Dubai Private Equity Firm Says It Will Invest $4.8 Billion of Bitcoin in Miami. IBC Group, a Dubai-based private equity firm that invests in real estate and tech, says it has earmarked $4.8 billion in Bitcoin for the Magic City. In a press release issued last week, IBC will use the 100,000 BTC to establish the Miami 2.0 Blockchain Strategy Foundation and support other projects. "Making the largest Bitcoin investment in history is proof of our commitment to assisting cities adopt Blockchain, which we see as the key to enabling widespread adoption," said IBC Chairman Khurram Shroff in the release.

Research and analysis of the Bitcoin market tells me…

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